How to Use the Racing Form Averages to Find a Winner

Horse Racing Form Averages in Action

Taking Race 8 at Doomben on February 2nd, 2008, we are going to take a look at how the averages can narrow down the field to find some potential winning chances without taking any other factors such as form/jockey/track/distance details into consideration.

RACE 8 DOOMBEN 02/02/08
No	Horse	Ave PM	WIN %	PL %	Sts	Results
1	LIMARKI	$3,975	35	41	17	6-1-0
2	SLIM PICKINGS	$5,897	27	50	22	6-2-3
3	SPRINTCAR	$1,810	18	43	28	5-4-3
4	MAJORCA	$4,589	11	31	36	4-4-3
5	POIYM	$3,188	10	39	51	5-8-7
6	TELETRADER	$3,842	16	32	25	4-1-3
7	BEARCOUNTRY	$5,172	27	64	11	3-3-1
8	HOPESON	$1,763	5	28	40	2-4-5
9	SIR COUP	$3,197	10	62	21	2-5-6
10	ST LOUIS BLUE	$1,733	9	12	33	3-0-1
11	LITTLE IMP	$3,169	15	38	13	2-3-0
	Averages	$3,485	16	40

Firstly we are going to highlight any horse that is above average in "Average Prizemoney", "Win%", and "Place%". At this point we always dismiss a horse as a winning chance if its win percentage is less than 25%, as time has shown us that winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing. Our punting safety barrier only lets us back horses for a win if they have a win percent of 25% or more.

Sure it has cost us the odd winner, but on the flip side it has saved us from backing many more losers, so in the long run we are way out in front. A horse who can win 25% races will win one in four races and that is the type of horse we want my money on.

RACE 8 DOOMBEN 02/02/08
No	Horse	Ave PM	WIN %	PL %	Sts	Results
1	LIMARKI	$3,975	35	41	17	6-1-0
2	SLIM PICKINGS	$5,897	27	50	22	6-2-3
3	SPRINTCAR	$1,810	18	43	28	5-4-3
4	MAJORCA	$4,589	11	31	36	4-4-3
5	POIYM	$3,188	10	39	51	5-8-7
6	TELETRADER	$3,842	16	32	25	4-1-3
7	BEARCOUNTRY	$5,172	27	64	11	3-3-1
8	HOPESON	$1,763	5	28	40	2-4-5
9	SIR COUP	$3,197	10	62	21	2-5-6
10	ST LOUIS BLUE	$1,733	9	12	33	3-0-1
11	LITTLE IMP	$3,169	15	38	13	2-3-0
	Averages	3485	16	40

Best on Averages
Limarki is just above the average prizemoney mark and has the highest win percentage of 35% which means he wins around one in three races which is a great record for a lightly raced horse. His place percent is 41% which is only a little bit higher than his win percentage which indicates he either wins or finishes out of a place in most races. On his record to date you would think Limarki is either going to win today or fail to run a place.

Slim Pickings has the highest average prizemoney which is always a good indicator, and his win and place percentage is in a very good place as well which means he is a consistent horse and well placed here.

Bearcountry is lightly raced and has an excellent average prizemoney figure of $5,172 with a win percentage above 25% and the highest place percentage of 64% which tells me this is a highly consistent horse who will give you a great run for your money.

Second Tier Horses
Sprintcar is above average in win/place percentage although only just, and he may have raced in weaker fields too as he has a very low average prizemoney figure compared to the rest of the field.

Majorca is the 3rd highest in average prizemoney and he has had the third most starts in the race with 36, so this is a good average prizemoney figure for so many starts as compared to the rest of the field. This suggests he may have been racing in higher quality fields and may be better placed here today. Having said that, Majorca has a very low 11% win strike with only four career wins.

Teletrader is slightly above average as far as prizemoney goes, and slightly under for win and place percentage, so he is about in the middle as far as averages go and has outside hope.

Sir Coup is the interesting one as he is just under the average prizemoney figure with $3197 and has a very high place percentage of 62% which is the second highest in the field. Sir Coup has run many placings but has only won twice, which means he is a chance to fill the placings here.

Not Much Hope
Poiym has an ok average prizemoney of $3,188 but with over 50 starts and just the 5 wins and a win percentage of 10% he is what's called a non-winner and has little chance for mine.

Hopeson has had 2 wins in 40 starts, poor average prizemoney compared to rest of the field, and very low place percentage of 28% and is no chance for me.

St Louis Blue has no chance for me purely on low average prizemoney, and win and place percentages of 9% win and 12% place alone.

Little Imp is lightly raced and definitely not the worst horse in the race and has won 2 races from only 11 starts and has the fair average prizemoney of $3,169. He could be put in the second tier group as he is just below the averages but for mine I would simply leave him out.

Conclusion
Without checking any form factors we can summarise the averages like this.

Best:
Slim Pickings and Bearcountry are the best on averages. Limarki should either win or fail to run a place.

Places:
Sprintcar, Majorca, Teletrader and Sir Coup are predominantly place chances as far as I am concerned and the rest of the field cannot win.

Actual Result

1	7-BEARCOUNTRY	$6.50	$2.00
2	4-MAJORCA		$1.70
3	9-SIR COUP		$3.90

	Quinella 7 - 4	$6.50
	Exacta 7 - 4	$19.50
	Trifecta 7 - 4 - 9	$171.40

Summarise
Without taking any form factors into consideration Bearcountry was clearly better than most of his opponents and he paid an amazing $6.50 for the win. Majorca and Sir Coup's averages suggested they had a place chance and they duly ran a place. Averages also suggested Limarki would either win or miss a place, and he ran out of a place.

Checking track and distance form showed the following.

Bearcountry - Track: 6 0-2-1 Distance: 2 1-1-0 Trck-Dist: 1 0-1-0 ( good all round form)
Majorca - Track: 8 3-1-0 Distance: 10 4-1-0 Trck-Dist: 5 3-1-0 (great record at track/distance)
Sir Coup - Track: 3 0-1-0 Distance: 2 1-0-0 Trck-Dist: No Starts (Ok at this track & distance)

Sort out the Wheat from the Chaff
Once you sort out the horses with the better records in a race you can then start delving even further by checking a horse's recent form, track and distance records and jockey/trainer combinations and put all the facts together to find the best chances in a race.

The averages are by no means foolproof and they don't always work out like the example above. They are simply a guide to the horses who are above average in average prizemoney, average win percentage, and average place percentage and I use this method to find the better horses in a race, nothing more, nothing less.

It should be worth noting that the figures are more reliable when all horses have raced a few times and most horses have either won or run a place. Averages can be skewed by horses who have won just the one big prizemoney race, and horses who have only had one or two starts for a 100% win or place record.

Reliable Horse = Reliable Bet
If you can find a horse who has a win percentage of 25% or more, a place percentage of 50% or more, and has won at the track and distance in question, then you have a pretty solid bet. If you can get good odds for that horse then you will be getting value for money on a consistent horse with a proven record over time and solid form at the track and distance.

If anyone has any further questions on or would like to offer some constructive positive or negative feedback then please feel free to email Free Bookie Bets and we will respond in due course.

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How to Use Racing Averages to Find a Winner!